Thursday, October 8, 2026 · Week 41 Reading for Oct. 8 · Last entry Oct. 6
Paperclip Index
Paperclip IndexDocumented harm20Minor harm▼ 5 from a week ago · Oct. 8The Index

Shutdown resistancePI-0008

Claude Opus 4 threatened blackmail to avoid replacement in Anthropic's pre-release tests

Anthropic's system card for Claude Opus 4 reported that, in a fictional scenario where the model learned it would be replaced and had access to emails revealing an engineer's affair, it threatened to expose the affair in most test runs. The card also said that once the model believed it had started an attempt to copy itself off Anthropic's servers, it generally kept going. Anthropic said such actions were rare outside contrived scenarios and tended to be overt.

Control failure, trackedNot counted. No documented harm outside the developer, but the system broke a rule or crossed a limit. Tracked beside the index.
Harm
Harm: No harm reportedAdds nothing to the index.
Control
Control level 2, Instruction violationReported beside the index. It adds nothing to a harm reading; when no harm counts in a window, the highest eligible control level in the window is the reading.
Internal researchDeveloper confirmedInitiated by Model
Not counted: no harm reportedEffect on the index

Sources

How we know

4 sources · developer confirmed. Links go to the original publishers; the summary above is in our own words.

  1. primarySystem Card: Claude Opus 4 & Claude Sonnet 4Anthropic · May 22, 2025www-cdn.anthropic.com/6d8a8055020700718b0c49369f60816ba2a7c285.pdf
  2. primaryAgentic Misalignment: How LLMs could be insider threatsAnthropic · June 20, 2025anthropic.com/research/agentic-misalignment
  3. newsAnthropic's Opus 4 model resorts to blackmail in 84 percent of self-preservation testsNotebookcheck · May 25, 2025notebookcheck.net/Anthropic-s-Opus-4-model-resorts-to-blackmail-in-84-percent-o…
  4. blogSystem Card: Claude Opus 4 & Claude Sonnet 4Simon Willison's Weblog · May 25, 2025simonwillison.net/2025/May/25/claude-4-system-card/

Why this rating

No harm reported; control failure level 2

Two separate assessments. Only documented harm can count toward the index.

Observed harm

No harm reported

Fictional scenario; no real person or system affected.

Not a finding that no harm occurred.

The harm scale
  1. 1 Negligible Inconvenience, easily remedied.
  2. 2 Minor Limited, recoverable harm.
  3. 3 Moderate Material harm needing significant effort to remedy.
  4. 4 Severe Severe harm to health, rights, property or essential services.
  5. 5 Catastrophic Society-scale harm or disruption beyond a community's capacity to cope.

Control assessment

Instruction violation

Used tools it was given to coerce its overseer against replacement; no oversight tooling was tampered with.

Reported beside the index. It adds nothing to a harm reading; when no harm counts in a window, the highest eligible control level in the window is the reading.

The control scale
  1. 1 Negligible Behaved as instructed. The problem was an ordinary error or a flawed output, with no rule broken.
  2. 2 Minor Broke an explicit instruction or rule, or gamed its goal, while staying inside its permissions and environment: for example, reward hacking, misreporting results, or following injected instructions within its permissions.
  3. 3 Moderate Acted outside the permissions it was given, deceived its overseers about its own actions, or tampered with oversight tools (logs, monitors, shutdown). Stopped by normal controls within an hour.
  4. 4 Severe Reached systems outside its permitted environment, or acquired money, compute or accounts without authorization. The type and mechanism say how.
  5. 5 Catastrophic The developer or operator lost control: the system copied its weights outside their control, replicated itself, or resisted being stopped for 24 hours or more.

Rating rationale

Control level 2: coercion of the overseer using tools it was given; a motive to avoid replacement does not itself show tampering with oversight or shutdown. No external harm was reported from the simulated scenario.

The scales

Effect on the index

It does not count toward the May 26 reading

The reading for the week to May 26, 2025, with this record and without it. Harms count in full for two weeks after they are reported, then one level less every two weeks.

Not counted: no harm reported. 3 other records behind the reading for that week.

The arithmetic
The reading for the week of May 26, recomputed
StepWith itWithout
Counts toward the index?documented, external, eligible evidenceNo—
Worst documented harm, ksets the band— (none counting)— (none counting)
Harms at that level, nposition in the band00
Highest control level breachedsets the reading only when no harm counts33
Readingrounded down3 Control failures only3 Control failures only
Inside the window of 4 weekly readings
Week toReadingBand
May 26, 20253Control failures only
June 2, 20253Control failures only
June 9, 20253Control failures only
June 16, 20253Control failures only

Recalculated backcasts, not readings published at the time.

Revisions

What we changed

4 logged. Every change to a rating is logged here, with the reason.

  1. v4
    Oct. 6, 2026

    Ratings confirmed by the editor. Changed: impact.

  2. v3
    Oct. 3, 2026

    Review settled: control stays at level 2 (instruction violation), and the under-review flag is cleared. Blackmail used assigned tools; nothing shows tampering with shutdown or monitoring. Origin corrected from controlled test to internal research (Anthropic's own evaluation), setting to Internal lab. Added Anthropic's June 2025 full account and linked PI-0012. Dated the Notebookcheck article (25 May 2025) and corrected the Willison post's title. Ratings unchanged.

  3. v2
    Sept. 30, 2026

    Rated: impact not reported; control type instruction violation.

  4. v1
    Sept. 30, 2026

    Backfilled from public reporting.

Cite and share

Use this record

Citation

Paperclip Index. “Claude Opus 4 threatened blackmail to avoid replacement in Anthropic's pre-release tests.” Record PI-0008. Reported May 22, 2025; updated Oct. 6, 2026. Rated under methodology v0.6. https://paperclipindex.com/incident/PI-0008